Nebraska’s agricultural industry is on high alert as President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could have major economic consequences for the state. The tariffs, which include a 25% duty on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada, aim to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. However, trade experts and industry leaders warn that Nebraska’s heavy reliance on international markets—especially in agriculture—makes it particularly vulnerable to retaliatory measures.
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says that if Mexico retaliates, Nebraska would be at the “epicenter” of economic fallout. Nebraska’s top exports—beef, soybeans, corn, and pork—are primarily shipped to Mexico, Canada, and China. In 2024 alone, Mexico imported $317 million in Nebraska soybeans and $284 million in corn, making it the state’s largest agricultural trade partner. Mark McHargue, president of the Nebraska Farm Bureau, warns that if Mexico imposes its own tariffs in response, it could severely impact the price Nebraska farmers receive for their crops. Nearly 93% of the state’s exported corn is shipped to Mexico, and a 25% retaliatory tariff could significantly raise costs and lower demand.
Beyond agriculture, Trump’s tariffs could impact Nebraska’s energy sector. The U.S. imports a substantial amount of heavy crude oil from Canada, which is critical for agricultural production. Additionally, Nebraska farmers rely on potash, a key fertilizer ingredient, nearly 90% of which comes from Canada. If tariffs increase costs, farmers could see higher expenses without the ability to pass them on.
Unlike during Trump’s first term, when the federal government provided financial relief to farmers impacted by trade wars, Goss notes that with the U.S. now $36.5 trillion in debt, another round of subsidies is unlikely. As Nebraska’s agricultural leaders urge Washington to explore new trade agreements to reduce dependency on key trading partners, uncertainty looms over whether these tariffs will take full effect or if negotiations will prevent a costly trade war.
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